Yauhen Afnahel: Belarusians Are Waiting For An Answer To One Question

• 4.02.2026, 15:39

Even the most insignificant event can trigger changes in Belarus.

Why did the 2020 protests not lead to victory? Who made the decisions that influenced the outcome of events? Were the Belarusian security forces ready to switch to the side of the people? How to make us count?

About this - a frank conversation in the interview with the coordinator of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Yauhen Afnahel "Malanka Media". The website Charter97.org provides a transcript of the conversation.

- The first thing I'd like to know is, in 2020, did you expect to go to prison and stay there this long?

- Naturally, I and my colleagues considered the possibility that we might go to jail. We have been involved in social activities for a long time, it was always associated with the risk of arrest. It was clear that 2020 was the climax. We were preparing, among other things, for jail. In August, I had conversations with my loved ones, with my relatives, and I warned them about it. We said goodbye in advance in case I was arrested. I know a lot of my friends did the same.

- When did you have the realization that the 2020 protests failed?"

- I wouldn't say they failed. We didn't win, we didn't achieve the main goal, but the uplift, the excitement, the faith that our people had because of the 2020 protests is the key to what will work out in the near future. It's just that instead of a short path, which was also possible, we have a slightly longer path, but not so long that we can't talk about winning, about achieving our goals in the near foreseeable future.

- And when will that happen?

- I don't want to just say without evidence and without reason, "We will win." Me and our team knew it was going to be 2020. We were preparing for it, we prepared for it, we understood that hundreds of thousands of people would come out to protest. It was clear in 2017, when there were "dumb protests". It was clear after the meetings with people, after we traveled all over Belarus in 2019. We said that hundreds of thousands of Belarusians would take to the streets in 2020. We did not say that "we will win", we said that it was possible. The same can be said now.

Now the situation in Belarus depends largely on what is happening in Ukraine. If Europe continues to support Ukraine, if Ukrainians are ready to fight, and they are ready to fight, although now they are in terrible, difficult conditions, in conditions of power cuts, when people are forced to evacuate from major cities, from Kiev, among others, in conditions of a difficult situation on the front.

Nevertheless, Ukraine is fighting and holding back the onslaught of the Russian army. The active phase of the war has lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War. Russia, despite some successes in the first months, is losing. It cannot advance. The district center is stormed for a year, some small settlements are captured. This is talked about as great victories, but in fact the front line has hardly changed since 2023. Under these conditions, if Europe continues to support Ukraine, if Ukrainians are ready to fight for their country, they will win. Russia has very big problems right now: budget deficit, rising military spending. Even the Soviet Union was once hamstrung by the war in Afghanistan and the arms race, the fact that it had to spend a lot of money on defense. Russia has far fewer opportunities. And if Ukraine wins, it opens a window of opportunity for Belarus and for many nations that are part of the Russian Federation. If Ukraine wins, Russia as it is now will not survive.

- We started talking about 2020. You said that you gathered people, brought them out, but there was a different rhetoric, that people self-organized. Where is the truth?

- Both are true. The phenomenon of Belarus is yard chats and actions that took place in the neighborhoods, in the yards of Minsk and other large cities. But backyard chats emerged after the solidarity flashmob, which was started in June-July 2020, when at 19:00 people went out on the balcony, banged pots, and turned on music. At first, a couple people would come out, look, and see no one. On the second day they would go out and see someone else doing it, and on the third day they would see someone else. So people found each other, saw that there were a lot of them, got acquainted, and then yard cells were created, which already in August organized large actions.

Never anything happens just like that. There are always some factors that influence a person's decision, what he will do, what he will think about. It could be the media, socializing with other people. As for the first part of the question, we should not forget that Belarusians are fighting in Ukraine.

- Yes. But how many volunteers are there? Will this force be enough to, first, overthrow the regime? Secondly, how will this force get to Belarus, if we take into account the fact that our border is now protected, militarized.

- Belarus is occupied territory, and Ukraine has the right to consider Belarus as a part of Russia, as a territory that is occupied by Russia. For example, the Ukrainians have been hitting Russian oil refineries. That turned the tide of the war in many ways. But we know that both the Novopolotsk and Mozyr refineries supply fuel for the needs of the Russian army and the front.

We should not forget that there are people in Belarus who came out in the twentieth year, they did not go anywhere. Some of them went abroad, most of them stayed in Belarus. Their relatives, friends, colleagues remained. Belarusians remember 2020. In such a situation, it will be enough for some, perhaps, insignificant factor, as it happened in Iran, for people to take to the streets again. It may be some economic problems, price rise, contradictions in the structures of power, because it is not monolithic and not as stable as it wants to appear. We cannot say exactly when and what it will be. But the experience of other countries, and more rigid dictatorships, if we are talking about Iran, shows that sometimes a small event is enough for all this energy, discontent, hatred of the regime to spill out into the streets.

- How correct is it to compare Belarus with Iran, with their mentality? We saw 2020, peaceful protests, people were not ready to take up pitchforks, weapons. Weapons, which are not clear where to get in our current conditions.

- I would not exaggerate the force component in the Iranian protests. The Iranians we spoke to were talking about peaceful resistance. The fact that clashes started there is simply a defensive reaction to the aggression that was on the part of the authorities. We should not forget about direct provocations, because we saw footage of mosques being set on fire, which was a provocation on the part of the authorities. Iranian opposition media wrote about it. It is always profitable for the authorities to make the people who take to the streets look like "extremists" and "terrorists". The majority of the protest was peaceful, but the aggravation of the situation caused some kind of forceful action.

We often confuse peaceful protest with indecision. Nonviolent protest includes occupying buildings, blocking streets, taking active actions that bring victory every day, going on strike, defending one's own always and everywhere. These moments we unfortunately lacked in 2020, because the united headquarters then called to act within the law, not to escalate, not to provoke the authorities, not to take to the streets. Even such calls were on August 9-10, they were heard from Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. This played a negative role in the events of 2020.

- But how can you be sure that the Belarusians, even if Tikhanovskaya had called to take pitchforks in their hands, would have done it?

- I'm not talking about "taking pitchforks", I'm talking about peaceful, non-violent, but resolute protest. We talked to people and saw that they are ready for such actions, ready to occupy buildings, ready to take to the streets every day, not just on Sundays.

When there were calls from the headquarters and a number of Telegram channels to go out only on weekends, we said: "No, we will gather every day". And tens of thousands of people gathered on Independence Square in the evening of every day. There were actions in the districts, in the neighborhoods, which were organized by yard groups. People wanted and were ready to come out every day.

I remember the action on August 16. It was probably the most mass action in the modern history of Belarus. When there was a call to disperse through TV channels, people were perplexed. Why did we gather in the center of Minsk, 200-300 thousand of us, and go home, when the whole city is ours, there are no police, no law enforcers, do what you want. In such conditions, the call to disperse and come next Sunday is at least sabotage.

- Good. Would you be ready for the scenario when Belarusians would be shot as massively as in Iran?

- Why are we talking about shooting? Why aren't we talking about the mood of the security forces at that moment? In the first days after the elections, the security forces were confused, many were ready to move to the side of the people.

- Do you think there would have been no resistance from that side?

- With our competent actions - no. After the events of August 9-11, when there were clashes in Minsk, in other cities, when there were killed, many law enforcers, even supporters of Lukashenko began to look at it with completely different eyes. They did not approve of forceful actions on the part of the military. The law enforcers were ready to side with the people if they saw that the opposition was ready to take power into its own hands.

- How can you be so sure? You speak for everyone, and I'm sure our viewers will think you've talked to every military man.

- We've met with the military and talked to them. I'm speaking from my impressions, from the impressions of my colleagues who met with the enforcers, and high level ones at that, and talked about the prospects. They were prepared, at least, if not to take the side of the people, then at least to do nothing. Yes, there are, understandably, thawed, there are elite units, which are loyal to Lukashenko personally. But remember the footage from Sunday's actions. We saw these soldiers of the internal troops standing with their eyes down. What, would they shoot? They were confused, they saw this huge crowd of people, and they realized that everyone there has relatives and friends. When such a large number of people take to the streets, it is impossible to counteract them.

- Okay, then, here's a question. Why didn't they do nothing, the law enforcers, if they could do nothing? What did they lack?

- Because they did not see the desire of the opposition, which was still associated with the presidential headquarters, to win, the desire to take power into their own hands.

- How should this desire have manifested itself?

- For example, many people have asked why Svetlana Tikhanovskaya did not hold the inauguration, why an adequate alternative center of power was not created? In the military, as it were, everything is very clear: there is a commander-in-chief, he gives orders. On the other side, although illegitimate, there is a commander-in-chief. On our side, it is unclear. Why was there no inauguration, why were there no calls for decisive action, why was there a call not to take to the streets? By the way, it also had an effect on many people who were going to go out on election day and after it. Perhaps the situation could have been changed in the first days after the elections.

- You tried to convey this information somehow. I understand that "European Belarus" was engaged in it, right? Did you somehow try to communicate with the office, to reach them, to convey this position of the law enforcers.

- Back in the spring of 2020, we had a number of meetings with Sergei Tikhanovsky, our people negotiated with Viktor Babariko. Yes, this is the position we tried to convey. Certain agreements were reached with Sergei. Then, when he and Nikolai Statkevich were arrested, our people became Svetlana Tikhanovska's confidants. But after that, completely different people came to the presidential headquarters. All agreements were broken.

We were forced to withdraw from the trustees because we fundamentally disagreed with the strategy chosen by the united headquarters. We couldn't influence its decision, although we did communicate our position, and we did it repeatedly.

- And what did the headquarters say when you were using such rhetoric that you should call on people to seize buildings? I remember there was a moment when they tried to seize the prison on Okrestina, they wanted to, but then at some point they took people aside?

- They said: "We want to act according to the law". In general, many people, who appeared in the opposition at that moment, had an incomprehensible confidence that everything could be done according to the law. After all, the history of Belarus of the last 30 years has not gone anywhere. At the same time, the same Viktor Babarika was saying that "we will win, we will get the majority of votes, and the elections this time will be impossible to falsify with such support. Then, a few days after these words, Viktor Dmitrievich was already in jail, although he had been warned that Lukashenko could not be played with by law. Our colleagues who negotiated with him, Dmitry Bondarenko, Natalya Radina, said, "Viktor Dmitrievich, you will be jailed." And so it happened.

- There is no feeling that the protests were purposefully leaked?

- Yes. Most likely, it was partially so, because, as I have already said, some actions simply cannot be written off as stupidity, because there is the history of Belarus, there is the experience of 2006, 2010, when there were presidential elections. Any adequate, normal person realizes that one can't play with Lukashenko according to the law. When you are told by seemingly smart people that "we will act according to the law," and from the other side "it will not be possible to break the law or it will not work," then there are questions to them. The same is true for a number of media, a number of politicians.

I can simply list the axioms. Revolutions are made in capitals, revolutions are made in the center of capitals. Why were people taken away from the center of the city to the outskirts or to the periphery, where they would just wave flags and shout? And then: "Dismissed, we will gather in a week, next Sunday". What should we call it?

- What's the difference between doing it in the center or on the outskirts?

- In the center - administrative buildings... I'll give you an example from 2001. People gathered on October Square on election day, not a large number of people, but at the same time activists of the Zubr movement occupied the Palace of Trade Unions. A white-red-white flag was raised on the roof. For twenty-four hours this building was the headquarters of the opposition, the headquarters of the revolution. Another question is that then there was a candidate who immediately admitted defeat. You were at Euromaidan and you know how it happens. It's one thing to have people on the square, it's another thing to have buildings where you can keep warm, where people feel safer. An administrative building, among other things, is a symbol of power. When the authorities lose them, it is a signal to the whole world and to the whole country: the authorities are not in control. In August 2020, given the number of people who were on the streets, it was very easy to occupy the city center, just to occupy it forever - if you wanted to, if you had the will to win.

- There is such a tendency: if you speak against Tikhanovskaya, and when you say that Tikhanovskaya or Tikhanovskaya's headquarters could have leaked these protests, you start criticizing such people, that "these are all KGB agents who are deliberately slandering Sveta". What would you say to such people?

- Learn to take criticism normally. There have been mistakes, there have been serious mistakes, there have been mistakes that border on a conscious "drain". And because of these mistakes, there are casualties. People are sitting around, there are people killed, and we didn't accomplish the goal. If the mistakes are not corrected, we may not succeed further. We need to learn from mistakes.

- But people inside the country are intimidated. This is the opinion of all of us. One active part has gone abroad, the second active part is in jail, and the third is intimidated and is unlikely to do anything.

- I meet people from Belarus. Yes, it's hard there, repressions, many relatives are in jail, but nevertheless I wouldn't talk about intimidation. You know, before the twentieth year, the same people who now talk about fears said: "In the twentieth year, no one will go out. People are scared, it's going to be business as usual, nothing's going to happen." This is constantly repeated by the same people, which also raises questions. I communicate with Belarusians, I see that yes, it is hard for them, they are under serious pressure, there is a dictatorship there. But at the same time, the spirit of the twentieth year could not be eradicated, because people saw what they could do, saw how many of them there were, saw their strength. This has not gone anywhere. The only thing that Belarusians now want from us, from those who are abroad, who are in more comfortable conditions, from independent mass media, is answers to the question: "How to change the power of Belarus? How to fight the dictatorship? What should be done now?" This is what people expect from us, not stories about how they are afraid.

- What do you think of Statkevich's feat?

- I witnessed it. We talked with Nikolai Viktorovich back in the KGB cell. Even then it was clear that he would stay in Belarus. I didn't try to change his mind, because I understood that he is a man who makes his own decision, but I explained that his presence abroad would be necessary, and he is really missed here.

- We saw him getting off the bus at the border. It was a heroic act. Not only that, it is the act that I think infuriated Lukashenko the most. Knowing Lukashenko, we realize that he can't stand anyone who breaks his script, his game. He starts freaking out when people break his game, when he says that "nothing will happen", "everything in the country is fine", and hundreds of thousands of people take to the streets. He also freaks out when one person, one hero breaks his game. And I'm sure that Nikolai Statkevich delivered a lot of sleepless nights to the dictator

- But, in principle, people are now more useful abroad, to do something for Belarus either you have to stay in the country or return at your own risk. For example, now I want to recall the story of anarchist Olinevich, who went to Belarus, realizing what was waiting for him there, and many people condemned this deed.

- Everyone should be in his place, where he can bring more benefit to the common cause, to the country. Someone will do it more abroad, someone will do it inside the country. We shouldn't forget that there are tens of thousands of people who left Belarus in the twentieth year, there are former political prisoners. There is a huge number of people in the country, who want to do something and even try to do something. And who, most importantly, are waiting. They are waiting for an answer from emigration, waiting for ideas, waiting for action.

Naturally, we need people abroad. Our team worked together: some people were abroad in Warsaw, in Vilnius, and some in the country. This was useful when, for example, there were "dumbass" protests, when there were preparations for 2020, presidential elections, protests.

- Five years ago, did you assume that a full-scale war could start in Ukraine?"

- Yes, we talked about it with Ukrainians, in particular, I had a meeting, when I lived in Warsaw in 2015, with Andriy Parubiy. I asked then: "Why are you trading with Lukashenko? Why are you supporting a dictator at a time when you can support the Belarusian opposition, which is your friend?' I said then that there would be an attack from Belarus. The same thing was said by our colleagues from "European Belarus" when they met with Ukrainian politicians - Dmitri Bondarenko, Andrei Sannikov. Journalists, for example, Natalia Radina, editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org, said the same thing when she talked to Ukrainian media and Ukrainian politicians.

We warned about it and said what was necessary for Belarus. We suggested opening FM stations along the border that could broadcast to Gomel and Brest, to large district centers - Mozyr, Pinsk. We talked about supporting the Belarusian opposition, mass media, we talked about many other things that Ukraine could do as an independent state and regional leader for its neighbor. But instead, unfortunately, Ukrainians traded with Lukashenko - even when the war in Donbass started. This was incomprehensible to us.

Yes, we knew there would be war with Ukraine. Russia's geopolitical doctrine explicitly says that Ukraine and Belarus are territories that fall within its zone of influence. Russia will not just let them go.

- How do you react to the accusation of the Ukrainian side, of the Ukrainian citizens themselves that we are involved in this war, that we are not separated from Lukashenko's regime? Every year polls are conducted, and statistics shows that fewer and fewer Ukrainians trust Belarusians and want to be friends with the Belarusians after the war.

- I have not encountered such accusations. I think that the participation of Belarusian volunteers in the defense of Ukraine will level all these accusations. Ukrainians, I think, understand this. I see the understanding that Lukashenko is separate, and Belarusians are separate, that Belarusians are on the side of Ukraine.

- Now they are beginning to say in the context of the war that everything will not end only with Ukraine, and Russia will go to war on the countries of the European Union. How much do you believe in such a scenario?

- It is possible. Everything will depend on the position of Europe. Right now, the front line of European defense is Ukraine. If Putin feels that Europe is not ready to defend Ukraine, he will realize that Europe is not ready to defend the Baltic states.

Russia survived, developed and grew, including economically, when it expanded geographically. It is an Asian empire in its structure and mentality. As soon as growth stops, Russia either disintegrates or there is a revolution there. So Russia will expand until it gets punched in the nose. As long as it is allowed to expand, it will expand - on the last resources. As I said, the economy is weak, money is scarce, but there is unlimited human resources and an irrational desire to take over half the world. Guided by this, Russia will try to crush Ukraine. Russia will try to include the Baltic states into its zone of influence in one way or another, and Lukashenko is its ally. This has to be understood. I am glad that Lithuanian and Polish politicians realize this. And it is especially good that the European military realize the importance of the "Belarusian balcony" and the geopolitical position of our country. I very much hope that this understanding will help to draw more attention to the situation in Belarus and Ukraine.

- So far, one gets the impression that the border countries understand it, but the further ones do not, especially not the United States. And there is a feeling that Ukraine is being drained.

- The question is whether the country is a subject, or it is just an object in someone's game. Ukraine has already paid a very high price for its freedom and will not allow itself to be "merged". This is an example for us, when in harsh, inhuman conditions, in freezing cold, with limited resources the country fights against the largest state in the world.

Let's remember 2022. Ukraine then, by and large, was able to stop Russian aggression single-handedly. There was no serious help yet, but Ukrainians were able to resist the enemy. Today I see that Ukraine is ready to fight, and this is an example for us, for Belarusians. Ukraine has shown its strength. Strength will always be reckoned with.

Earlier, when there were events in Crimea and Donbass, many people asked why the West did not stand up for Ukraine. The answer was simple: at that time Ukraine could not defend Crimea on its own. But as soon as Ukraine began to defend Donbass, began to fight for it, help began. No one will support the weak. If you are strong, if you demonstrate strength, if you want to win - going back to our events of 2020 - there will be support, and you will be reckoned with.